מבא לחקר העתיד במנהל עסקים

פרופ' דוד פסיג

ניתן להוריד מסמך זה בפורמט פי.די.פ כאן

מטרות

מטרת הקורס היא לפתוח בפני הסטודנטים צוהר אל תחומי חקר המערכות (Systems Thinking) וחקר העתיד (Futures Thinking). הקורס יחשוף בפני הסטודנטים את הרציונאל המדעי לחקר עתידים ויסקור את ארבעת הגישות העיקריות המאפיינות אותן. הסטודנטים ילמדו להכיר מדגם של מתודולוגיות הנגזרות מכל גישה וילמדו מגמות שונות שנוסחו בעזרת מתודולוגיות נבחרות.

ארבעת הגישות בחקר העתיד

חקר העתיד כיום מחולק לארבעה זרמים המנסים לעזור לבעלי עניין בתחומים מגוונים. לכל זרם יתרונות וחסרונות. הראשון, הזרם הקלאסי, עוסק בחיזוי מגמות סבירות (probable futures). השני, זרם התסריטים, עוסק בחקר תסריטים אפשריים(possible futures) . השלישי, זרם הקלפים הטרופים(wild futures) , עוסק בחקר התסריטים הבלתי הגיוניים או הפחות סבירים. והרביעי, זרם מעצבי העתיד, עוסק בעיצוב דימויים עתידיים רצויים(preferable futures) .

רציונאל פילוסופי

להלן, בתמצית, הרציונאל הפילוסופי והמדעי שמאחורי כל זרם.

1. תוך כדי שהם מניחים שיש הגיון בהתפתחותם של מערכות, העתידנים מהזרם הראשון שהחלו את דרכם תוך כדי מלחמת העולם השניה, ביקשו למצוא את דפוסי ההגיון שיש בהתפתחות המערכות. את דפוסי ההגיון שגילו הם תירגמו למודלים וביססו את מהימנותם ואת תקפותם. תקיפות הניבוי של מרבית המודלים הקיימים כיום עומדת על כ- 0.60. בעזרת המודלים והמתודולוגיות אשר פיתחו במשך עשרות שנים, עתידנים מהזרם הקלאסי מנסים גם כיום לערוך תחזיות במטרה לעזור לארגונים להתאים את עצמם אל המגמות הסבירות ביותר ההולכות ומתפתחות בטווחים השונים של העתיד. הקורס יחשוף את הסטודנטים לכתבי העת, למתודולוגיות ולתחזיות כלכליות בקטגורית העתידים הסבירים.
2. הזרם השני, התסריטאים, כולל בתוכו עתידנים שיצאו מנקודת הנחה שגם באמצעות המתודולוגיות שיש בידינו היום  עדיין לא ניתן להבין במידה מספקת כיצד מתפתחות מערכות ולכן קשה מאד להעריך נכוחה כיצד העתיד בסופו של דבר יקרום עור וגידים. זרם זה אשר החל להתפתח בסוף שנות השישים באירופה, טוען כי ככל שהתמורות נעשות מואצות יותר, תקיפות הניבוי של המודלים שיש ברשותנו תלך ותקטן. לכן, הם ביקשו לאתר את התסריטים (2-3) האפשריים ביותר, לנסחם היטב, ולהכין עם בעלי העניין פרוצדורות תגובה שקולות מראש לתסריטים שזוהו. הקורס יחשוף את הסטודנטים לכתבי העת, למתודולוגיות ולתחזיות כלכליות בקטגורית העתידים האפשריים.
3. הזרם השלישי בחקר העתיד, סוג חדש יחסית של אנשי מחקר, יוצא מנקודת הנחה שאם ארגון יחשוב על תסריטים בלתי הגיוניים העלולים להתפתח ויגזור מהם פרוצדורות תגובה למקרה בו אכן יתממשו, יכין עצמו אותו ארגון להתמודדות טובה יותר עם מגוון גדול של אפשרויות—מורכבות וקיצוניות ככל שתהיינה. מטרת הזרם הזה היא לזהות קלפים טרופים (wild cards) ולהכין את הארגון למצבים קיצוניים. הקורס יחשוף את הסטודנטים לכתבי העת, למתודולוגיות ולתחזיות כלכליות בקטגורית העתידים הטרופים.
4. הזרם הרביעי, זרם מעצבי העתיד, יוצא מנקודת הנחה שאין זה מתפקידו של העתידן לערוך תחזיות במצב בו המערכות הן כה דינאמיות. בעיקר משום ההכרה בקושי שבניסוח תחזיות במצב בו קצב התמורות כה מואץ והמערכות נמצאות בחוסר איזון בולט (disequilibrium). חברי הזרם הזה מעריכים כי על מנת שארגון ישכיל לפעול באוריינטציה עתידית, הוא זקוק לביסוסה של שפה ארגונית עתידית המשותפת לחבריו, קרי דימויים עתידיים שהופכים בידיו לכלי התייחסות אל התמורות המואצות והדינמיות המתרחשות מחוץ ובתוך הארגון. מטרת סוג רביעי זה של עתידנים אינה לערוך תחזיות אלא לעזור לארגון לעצב דימויים עתידיים או חזון עתידי ארגוני הנובע מתוך התבונה הקולקטיבית של המומחים הפועלים בארגון המתבסס על הידע שידם משגת בהווה על מגמות עתידיות. הקורס יחשוף את הסטודנטים לכתבי העת, למתודולוגיות ולתחזיות כלכליות בקטגורית העתידים הרצויים.

נציין בפני הסטודנטים כי זרמים אלו הם נדבכים העומדים האחד על גבי השני. ארגונים המבקשים להכין עצמם טוב יותר אל העתיד משתמשים בכל הגישות הללו. אחרים בוחרים את הדחוף להם ביותר ומרכזים בהם את משאביהם.

 

ציון:

• עבודת מחקר בנושא מנהל עסקי עתידי    50%

או 5 יומני קריאה על חמישה ספרים מהרשימה המצורפת

• 1 יומן קריאה על הספר "צופן העתיד"       30%
• 1 יומן קריאה על מאמר בעברית              10%
• 1 יומן קריאה על מאמר באנגלית             10%

 

כל חומרי הקריאה נמצאים באתר  www.passig.com

 

קריאת חובה

חקר העתיד

1. פסיג, דוד (2008) צופן העתיד: מבחן העתיד של ישראל. הוצאת ידיעות אחרונות, ת"א.
2. פסיג, ד. (2000) כישורי חשיבה ולמידה עתידיים. אוני' בר אילן, ר"ג.   
3. פסיג, ד. (2002) מוטת זמן עתיד כמיומנות הנהגה עתידית. אוני' בר אילן, ר"ג. 
4. פסיג, ד. (2002) ההשבחה כמיומנות חשיבה מסדר גבוה של אינטיליגנציה עתידית. אוני' בר אילן, ר"ג.
5. פסיג, ד. (1994) מבואות לשמונה עשר טכניקות חיזוי. אוני' בר אילן, ר"ג. 
6. Passig, David (2001) To Study and to Teach the Future. Journal of Jewish Education. The American Council for Jewish Education. 66 (3), 41-50. (in Hebrew).
7. Passig, David (1999). Futures' Methodologies as Scientific Tools for the Emergence of Humankind. World Futures. The Academy of Evolutionary Management & Advanced Studies. 53 (4), 295-307. Gordon & Breach Science Publishers. Yverdon, Switzerland.

8.    Passig, David (2003). Future Time Span as a Cognitive Skill in Futures Studies. Futures Research Quarterly. 19 (4), 27-47.

9.    Marien, Michael (2002). Futures studies in the 21^st century: a reality-based view. Futures 34, Nos. 3-4: 261-81.

10.  Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The exploration of the future. Washington DC: World Future Society.

11. Slaughter, Richard A.  (1996). The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, Vols. 1-3. Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia: DDM Media.

12.  Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of future studies. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick and London.

 

13. מאמרים נוספים יינתנו לקריאה תוך כדי השיעורים.

 

 

מבא לחקר העתיד במנהל עסקים

 

פרופ' דוד פסיג

 

 

מדגם כתבי עת מדעיים בחקר העתיד (refereed)

Journal of Future Studies - Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University, Tamsui Campus, Taipei, Taiwan - www2.tku.edu.tw/~tddx/jfs/

Futures Research Quarterly - World Future Society - www.wfs.org

Futures - The journal of policy, planning and futures studies - www.elsevier.com

International Journal of Forecasting - Official Publication of the International Institute of Forecasters - www.elsevier.com

Journal of Time Series Analysis - www.blackwellpublishing.com

Cybernetics & Human Knowing - A Journal of Second Order Cybernetics & Cyber-Semiotics - www.imprint.co.uk/cyber.html

Plausible Futures Newsletter - Includes topics on robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, and sciences that could dramatically affect the future - www.plausiblefutures.com

Systems Research and Behavioral Science - The official Journal of the International Federation for Systems Research. Publishes articles on new theories, experimental research, and applications relating to all levels of living and non-living systems  -  www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/71007203

Cycles Magazine - The Foundation for the Study of Cycles Magazine is published quarterly. www.foundationforthestudyofcycles.org

Club of Amsterdam Journal - www.clubofamsterdam.com

Future Generations Journal - http://home.um.edu.mt/fgp/Journals.html 

Futuribles - www.futuribles.com/journal.html 

General Systems Bulletin - http://isss.org/bulletins/

On the Horizon - an international quarterly publication providing analysis and comment on the future of post-secondary education - www.emeraldinsight.com/info/journals/oth/oth.jsp

Foresight - The journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy - www.emeraldinsight.com/info/journals/fs/fs.jsp

 

 

מדגם של מכוני מחקר ברחבי תבל

The Public Policy Forecasting  -  www.publicpolicyforecasting.com

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - www.cifs.dk/en/  

The Arlington Institute  -  www.arlingtoninstitute.org

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) -  www.crnano.org

Extropy Institute  -  www.extropy.org

Foresight Institute -  www.foresight.org

Futuribles  -  www.futuribles.com

The Long Now Foundation  -  www.longnow.org

Millennium Institute  -  www.millenniuminstitute.net

Millennium Project - www.unmillenniumproject.org

AC/UNU The Millennium Project -  www.acunu.org

SETI Institute  -  www.seti.org

The Venus Project -   www.thevenusproject.com

Institute for the Future  -   www.iftf.org

BSR » Business for Social Responsibility  -  www.bsr.org 

The Arlington Institute  -  www.arlingtoninstitute.org

Santa Fe Institute - www.santafe.edu 

RAND Corporation - www.rand.org

RAND Europe - www.rand.org/randeurope 

Foresight Nanotech Institute  - www.foresight.org 

SRI International - www.sri.com 

the gff - www.thegff.com 

Foresight - www.foresight.gov.uk

Egypt Center for Future Studies - www.future.idsc.gov.eg

The Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis & Forecasting, Tel-Aviv U. - www.ictaf.tau.ac.il 

The Center for Futurism in Education – Ben- Gurion University, Israel - www.bgu.ac.il/futuredu/

Thematic Network on Foresight on Information Society Technologies in the European Research Area - http://fistera.jrc.es 

European Perspectives in the Information Society - http://fistera.jrc.es

Finland Futures Research Center - www.tukkk.fi/tutu/

Swedish Institute for Future Studies - www.framtidsstudier.se 

Futurreg - www.futurreg.net

The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology - www.dit.ie/futuresacademy  

Future Generations Alliance Foundation - www.global-alliance-foundation.com 

Hudson Institute - www.hudson.org 

Worldwatch Institute - www.worldwatch.org

Institute for 21st Century Agoras - www.globalagoras.org

Club of Amsterdam  - www.clubofamsterdam.com 

European Foresight Monitoring Network - www.efmn.info 

European Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform - www.efmn.info 

Future Humanity Institute at Oxford University - www.fhi.ox.ac.uk

European Futures Observatory - www.eufo.org

Foundation for the Study of Cycles - www.foundationforthestudyofcycles.org 

The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at
Boston University - www.bu.edu/pardee

The Singularity Institute - www.singinst.org

 

 

מדגם תוכניות לימוד לתארים גבוהים בחקר העתיד ברחבי תבל

באתר הזה מתעדכנים באופן שוטף כל המקומות בעולם בהם ניתן ללמוד לתארים בחקר העתיד:

Futures Studies - Global Programs and Resources - www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html 

 

להלן מדגם של תוכניות ראשוניות ושניוניות בחקר העתיד במקומות מובילים בעולם:

 

OECD International Futures Program  -  www1.oecd.org/sge/au/oecdifp.htm - EU

Grad Prog in Studies of the Future, Univ. of Houston - www.admin.cl.uh.edu/futureweb - USA

The Frederick S. Pardee RAND Graduate School - www.prgs.edu  - USA

U of Minnesota, Innovation Studies Certificate Program - www.cce.umn.edu/certificates/mgmt/innovation/ - USA

Portland State Univ. Systems Science Ph.D. Program - www.sysc.pdx.edu - USA

New England Complex Systems Institute  - www.necsi.org - UK

UCLA Human Complex Systems Program - www.hcs.ucla.edu – USA

Graduate Institute of Futures Studies - www.fgu.edu.tw/~future/english/eindex.htm - Taiwan

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies – www.irc.es - ES

Finland Futures Academy - www.tukkk.fi/tutu/tva/

Turku School of Economics, Master’s in Futures Studies, Finland - www.tse.fi/tutu/MastersProgramme  

The Institute for the Future at Anne Arundel Community College - www.aacc.edu/future/ 

Swinburne U. of Technology, Aus. Graduate School of Entrep. MS, PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.) - www.swin.edu.au/agse/courses/foresight/mssfprogram.htm - AU

U. of Stellenbosch, Econ & Mgmt Sci. and Inst. for Futures Resrch. M.Phil,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ/Mgmt) - www.ifr.sun.ac.za/MPhil - S. Africa

Tamkang University, Coll. of Ed. and Graduate Inst. of Futures Studies. MA in Futures Studies (Education) - http://future.tku.edu.tw -  Taiwan

Regent University, School of Global Leadership & Entrep. MA in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.) - www.regent.edu/acad/global/academics/msf/home.shtml 

U. of Hawaii at Manoa, Dept. of Pol. Sci. and Hawaii Rsrch Ctr for FS. MA, PhD in Alternative Futures (Pol Sci) - www.futures.hawaii.edu -   USA

U. of Houston, College of Technology. MS in Studies of the Future (Technology) - http://b3308-adm.cl.uh.edu/futureweb/ - USA

Turku School of Economics and Finland Futures Academy. MS in Futures Studies (Econ. and Bus. Admin.) - www.tukkk.fi/tutu/MasterProgramme  - Finland

CNAM, Lab. for Investig. in Prospective Strat.& ORg (LIPSOR). PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg) - www.cnam.fr/lipsor/eng/phdprogram.php - France

Monterrey Inst. of Tech, Ctr. for Planning & Foresight. MS in Strategic Foresight (Humanities & Soc. Sciences) - Mexico - https://serviciosva.itesm.mx/PlanesEstudio/Consultas/Planes/ConsultaPlanEstudio.aspx -

Fo Guang University, Graduate Inst. of Futures Studies, MA in Futures Studies (Sociology) - www.fgu.edu.tw/newpage/fgupageen/showfguen/ - Taiwan

Adizes Graduate School, interdisciplinary MA & PhD programs for the study of change, leadership, and the management of Complex Systems - www.adizesgraduateschool.org CA, USA

University of Arizona - http://ag.arizona.edu/futures

University of Sunshine Coast - www.metafuture.org

Drexel University - http://futureshaping.com/shostak/

 

מדגם איגודים מקצועיים

Futuribles - www.futuribles.com 

World Future Society  -   www.wfs.org

World Futures Studies Federation  -   www.wfsf.org

Association of Professional Futurists (APF)  -   www.profuturists.org 

Institute for Futures Studies (Sweden)  -   www.framtidsstudier.sc

International Association of Business Forecasting - http://weatherhead.cwru.edu/forecasting/iabf.html

The Strategic Leadership Forum  -   www.smartpages.com/planningforum

Secretariat for Futures Studies (Germany)  -   www.mmedia-ge.de/sfz/sfz_vore

Strategic Planning Society (UK)  -  www.the-sps.demo.co.uk

International Society for the System Sciences  -   www.isss.org

International Federation for Systems Research  -  www.ifsr.org

Le Village Systémique  -   www.systemique.levillage.org

The Swedish Morphological Society   -   www.swemorph.com 

Acceleration Studies Foundation ASF   -   www.accelerating.org

The Civic Futurological Society   -   http://ofs.sweb.cz/index.html   

Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology & Life Sciences   -   www.societyforchaostheory.org 

Instituto Nuevas Alternatives, Mexico - CO Guillermina Baena montero@mexis.com

The Chinese Futures Society   -  

Directora Nodo Futuro, México   -   www.metadata.org.mx/nodofuturomexico/portal/

Japan Soc of Future Research, Nihon Mirai Gakkai, GK Design Kiko nai, Sanai Bldg, 3-30-14 Takada, Toshimaku Tokyo 171-0033, Tel 03 39501221 Fax 03 39529057

 

 

מדגם חברות ייעוץ עתידי

Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc. -   http://josephcoates.com

Institute for Alternative Futures -   www.altfutures.com

Meridian Programme  -   www.meridian.org.uk

Strategic Futures International  -   www.sfutures.com

The Futures Group International   -  www.tfgi.com

Global Business Network   -  www.gbn.com

Institute of Business Forecasting   -  www.ibf.corn

Forrester Research: Technology research and advice  - www.forrester.com 

Shaping Tomorrow - www.shapingtomorrow.com 

Futures Skills - www.futuresskills.co.uk 

Research Centre for Futures Studies  -  www.progective.com

 

 

מדגם של קבוצות עניין

New Civilization Network  - www.newciv.org

New Zealand Futures Trust  - www.futurestrust.org.nz

World Future Council - www.worldfuturecouncil.org

Infinite Futures - www.infinitefutures.com

European Institute for Managing Diversity – Barcelona, Spain - www.iegd.org 

Shaping Tomorrow’s Foresight Network  -  http://shapingtomorrowmain.ning.com

 

מאגר ספרים בחקר עסקים עתידי

1.     According to Kotler: The World's Foremost Authority on Marketing Answers Your Questions
by Philip Kotler. American Management Association. 2005. 168 pages. Paperback. Philip Kotler's marketing genius has been distilled here in an easily accessible format that addresses such questions as what the marketing department of the future will look like, and what marketing strategies make sense during a recession. According to Kotler is a must-have guide for anyone with something to sell. Check price/buy book.

 

2.     The Accountable Organization: Reclaiming Integrity, Restoring Trust
by John Marchica. Davies-Black Publishing. 2004. 199 pages.
Without legislation or litigation, what will it take to drive an organization to be both principled and profitable? Entrepreneur Marchica profiles dozens of companies that combine integrity, accountability, and trust with successful results. Topics covered include leadership, communication, conflict resolution, and risk; includes a futuring exercise. Check price/buy book.

 

3.     Business and Economic Forecasting for the Information Age: A Critical Approach
by A. Reza Hoshmand. Quorum Books. 2002. 321 pages.
A textbook on forecasting for business and economics students and professors. Informative and scholarly, this book details techniques of business forecasting with an emphasis on information technology, including data collection, analysis, and modeling. Includes review questions, references, suggested readings, and Web resources. Check price/buy book.

 

4.     Business 2010: Trends and Technologies to Shape Our World
by Ian Pearson and Michael Lyons. Spiro Press. 2003. 232 pages.
Long-time British Telecommunications futurist-in-residence Pearson offers uniquely insightful forecasts on new opportunities emerging from a range of technological breakthroughs. Covers pervasive computing, electronic cash, artificial intelligence, network communities, and much more. Check price/buy book.

 

5.     Chaotics: An Agenda for Business and Society in the 21st Century
by Georges Anderla, Anthony Dunning, and Simon Forge. Praeger. 1997. 224 pages. Paperback. The real world cannot be understood in terms of conventional deterministic philosophies; a new discipline is needed that recognizes the implications of complexity for everyday living, from the concept of employment to our relationship with the environment. This book applies the concept of chaotics to business and wealth creation. Check price/buy book.

 

6.     The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job
by Oded Shenkar. Wharton School Publishing. 2004. 191 pages. .
China is the twenty-first century's new economic superpower. China's rise will transform global politics, the global economy, and societies worldwide. Business professor Shenkar reveals how China is coming to dominance, what it means to you, and what you must do to position yourself for tomorrow's new realities. Check price/buy book.

The Clean Tech Revolution: The Next Big Growth and Investment Opportunity
by Ron Pernick and Clint Wilder. Collins. 2007. 308 pages.
The Clean Tech Revolution, authors Ron Pernick and Clint Wilder of the firm Clean Edge identify the major forces that have pushed clean tech from back-to-the-earth utopian dream to its current revolution among the inner circles of corporate boardrooms, on Wall Street trading floors, and in government offices around the globe. By highlighting eight major clean-tech sectors--solar energy, wind power, biofuels and biomaterials, green buildings, personal transportation, the smart grid, mobile applications, and water filtration--they show how investors, entrepreneurs, and individuals can profit from this next wave of technological innovation. Pernick and Wilder discuss the winners among technologies, companies, and regions that are likely to reap the greatest benefits from clean tech. Check price/buy book.

 

7.     Competitive Intelligence: Scanning the Global Environment
by Robert Salmon and Yolaine de Linares. Economica. 1999. 196 pages. Paperback.
Authors Robert Salmon, former vice president of L'Oreal, and researcher Yolaine de Linares show how to decipher the signals we receive that foreshadow risks and opportunities ahead. Check price/buy book.

 

8.     Corporate Radar: Tracking the Forces That Are Shaping Your Future
by Karl Albrecht. AMACOM. 2000. 258 pages.
Successful businesses must know what's going on in the worlds of their customers, suppliers, and competitors, as well as more general trends in technology, the economy, and society. This pragmatic book offers business leaders the tools used by professional futurists, such as environmental scanning, and analyzes such trends as changing customer values, the rise of "intangible" economies, Internet myths, and much more. Check price/buy book.

 

9.     Cyberunion: Empowering Labor Through Computer Technology
by Arthur B. Shostak. M.E. Sharpe. 1999. 262 pages. Paperback.
Organized labor unions are building a new model of organization based on increasingly creative and effective use of computers. Labor educator and sociologist Arthur Shostak examines this new model, the "cyberunion," drawing on essays by rank-and-file union members who are using computers to help the labor movement renew its voice—and its ears. Check price/buy book.

 

10.  Democratizing Innovation
by Eric Von Hippel. MIT Press. 2005. 204 pages.
We see it more and more every day: customers, consumers, users, are getting smarter and more restless. They're inserting themselves into the production process; they're conspiring in open-source chat rooms; they're designing the products they themselves want to buy. Managers in the new, user-centric environment have two options, run and hide, or embrace this new trend for what it isa revolution. "Von Hippel has written the essential twenty-first century handbook on innovation. Business leaders who rely on organic growth will find his concepts and techniques extremely valuable," writes Roger Lacey, staff vice president of eBusiness and Corporate Planning and Strategy, 3M. Check price/buy book.

 

11.  The Disposable American: Layoffs and Their Consequences
by Louis Uchitelle. Knopf. 2006. 283 pages.
Two decades ago, layoffs were seen as a sign of corporate failure and a violation of acceptable business behavior. Over the years, the permanent separation of people from their jobs, abruptly and against their wishes, has become standard management practice. Award-winning New York Times writer Uchitelle sees this as a festering crisis. In The Disposable American, he examines the myths that have allowed for the situation to perpetuate itself and suggests solutions to this worsening situation. Check price/buy book.

 

12.  Doing Nothing Is Not an Option! Facing the Imminent Labor Crisis
by Robert K. Critchley. Thomson. 2004. 208 pages. 
As the workforce ages and the number of people older than 65 surpasses the number of children, a labor shortage is inevitable. Workplace consultant Critchley presents the facts and statistics of the aging workforce and their implications for employers. This book helps companies strategize on how to attract the best future leaders in a shrinking labor supply by pointing out the value of older workers. The author offers tips and tactics for phased retirement and rehiring, as well as how to effectively leverage the strengths of older workers. Check price/buy book.

 

13.  The Dream Society:How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business
by Rolf Jensen. McGraw-Hill. 1999. 230 pages. Paperback
The Information Age has dramatically transformed the world's economy, but an even more radical shift is under way: the "dream" society, built on imagination and storytelling. Businesses will increasingly focus on touching the emotional side of customers for their future products and services, and marketing will increasingly become a process of engaging people through stories, myths, and legends. This book by a leading Danish futurist offers a clear blueprint for positioning your business for this new era. Check price/buy book.

 

14.  Driving Growth Through Innovation
by Robert B. Tucker. Berrett-Koehler. 2002. 240 pages.
Today's leading firms are transforming their futures through innovation. This book contains many success stories, including Citigroup, Royal/Dutch Shell, and Tyson Foods, and offers insight on what a strong innovation strategy can do for your organization. Check price/buy book.

 

15.  Early Warning: Using Competitive Intelligence to Anticipate Market Shifts, Control Risk, and Create Powerful Strategies
by Ben Gilad. AMACOM. 2004. 268 pages.
Business disaster can strike when market realities outpace a company's strategy. Intelligence expert Gilad offers a way to avoid disaster: a three-part competitive early-warning system that combines strategic planning, competitive intelligence, and management action. Using myriad examples of successes and failures, Gilad reveals how a powerful strategy can make any company dominant, while failure to heed early warning signs can shake any market Goliath to its foundation. Check price/buy book  

 

16.  Ethical Markets: Growing the Green Economy
by Hazel Henderson. Chelsea Green Publishing Company. 2007. 300 pages. Paperback.
In this companion to the PBS television series of the same name, renowned futurist Henderson delivers an overview of the emerging green economy. Topics include fair trade, community investing, shareholder activism, and global corporate citizenship. Ethical Markets also contains in-depth interviews with some of the forward-looking CEOs who are leading the green revolution in business. Check Price/Buy Book

 

17.  Experimentation Matters: Unlocking the Potential of New Technologies for Innovation
by Stefan H. Thomke. Harvard Business School Press. 2003. 307 pages.
Harvard Business School professor Thomke examines technological innovations making an impact on the business world. His book explores why experimentation matters, new technologies for experimentation, how those technologies function in the workplace, and how to unlock their secrets for future business potential. Thomke introduces six principles for managing experimentation and offers ways for managers and entrepreneurs to extend experimentation capabilities beyond their organization. Check price/buy book.

 

18.  The 50-Plus Market: Why the Future Is Age-Neutral When It Comes to Marketing & Branding Strategies
by Dick Stroud. Kogan Page. 2006. 320 pages.
Marketing strategist Dick Stroud attempts to answer numerous questions on marketing effectively to consumers over the age of 50, such as what new marketing rules may apply to them, wether the willingness to try new brands changes with age, how interactive media could play a role in marketing to this group, and, most importantly, whether the future is really age-neutral. Check price/buy book.

 

19.  Five Minds for the Future
by Howard Gardner. Harvard Business School Press. 2007. 204 pages. Paperback. 
Drawing from a wealth of diverse examples to illuminate his ideas, Harvard University psychologist Gardner attempts to define the cognitive abilities that will command a premium in the years ahead: the disciplinary mind, the synthesizing mind, the creating mind, the respectful mind, and the ethical mind. The book is intended for anyone charged with training and developing organizational leaders-both today and tomorrow. Check Price/Buy Book

 

20.  Future, Inc. : How Businesses Can Anticipate and Profit from What's Next
by Eric Garland. AMACOM. 2006. 256 pages.
Eric Garland a professional futurist and adviser to executives at top corporations and government agencies, here provides many practical techniques for a wide range of businesses and industries in order for them to foresee their futures. He offers specific methodologies to assess how the business environment is changing, and which changes are relevant. "How can we overcome the systemic indifference to the mid and long-term future? Garland’s book can be a giant step in that direction," writes consulting futurist Joseph F. Coates. Check price/buy book.

 

21.  Get Back in the Box: Innovation from the Inside Out
by Douglas Rushkoff. HarperCollins. 2005. 336 pages. 
In this wide-ranging new book, best-selling author and futurist Douglas Rushkoff argues that the era of all out-of-the-box thinking is distracting too many businesses from their core competencies. The result is too many businesses relying too much on consultants, market research, and competitive bluster. The real promise of our networked era is realized not by perpetually adopting new themes and processes, but by tackling a more fundamental challenge: reinvigorating the work itself. Check price/buy book.

Getting To The Better Future: A Matter of Conscious Choosing: How Business Can Lead the Way to New Possibilities
by John E. Renesch. New Business Books. 2000. 133 pages. Paperback.
Futurist John Renesch contends that business possesses more power—and more responsibility—than ever before and has the unprecedented opportunity to create a better future for the world. This book presents a vision of a win-win world created by leaders of conscience. Check price/buy book.

 

22.  The Globalization of Nothing
by George Ritzer. Pine Forge Press. 2003. 259 pages.
Globalization has led to a world of nullities: non-people, non-places, non-commodities, non-services—generic things (or nothings) devoid of distinctive substantive content. The systems that led to this culture of nothingness and that keep it in place are the subjects of this compelling volume. Sociologist Ritzer explores corporations imposing their standards on vast geographic areas (grobalization); dehumanization, disenchantment, and consumption; and such institutions as McDonalds, WalMart, Walt Disney World, and the American mall. Check price/buy book.

 

23.  The Halo Effect: And The Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers
by Phil Rosenzweig. The Free Press. 2007. 232 pages. 
The "halo effect," according to Rosenzweig, is the popular delusion that, when its sales and profits are up, a company has a sound strategy and a visionary leader, and vice versa. Drawing on examples from leading companies including Cisco Systems, IBM, Nokia, and ABB, Rosenzweig discusses how the halo effect along with eight other delusions and offers ways to replace mistaken thinking with a sharper understanding of what drives business success and failure. Check Price/Buy Book

 

24.  Hospitality 2010: The Future of Hospitality and Travel
by Marvin Cetron, Fred DeMicco, and Owen Davies. Prentice Hall. 2005. 352 pages. Paperback. Booming economies could boost profits for the world's leisure-industry enterprises such as hotels and restaurantsunless the threat of terrorism continues to discourage tourism and business travel. This important new look at the major trends shows how to identify those that will have the greatest impacts on business. Check price/buy book.

 

25.  The Insider's Guide to The Future: A Preview of What Life Will Be Like over the Next 20 Years
by Edith Weiner and Arnold Brown. Boardroom Books. 1997. Approx. 120 pages.
The authors of Supermanaging, Office Biology, and other books on the impacts of future trends on business here offer their insights on the emergence of a new society, called the "Emotile Society"—blending emotions and mobility. In this new economy, knowledge will be the greatest economic asset, but it will be limited by time: Information that is incredibly valuable one moment will be worthless the next. Check price/buy book.

 

26.  Invisible Advantage: How Intangibles are Driving Business Performance
by Jonathan Low and Pam Cohen Kalafut. Perseus Publishing. 2002. 259 pages.
Fully one-third of an organization's value is based on elements that cannot be seen—"intangibles." Business management researchers Low and Kalafut identify 12 intangibles for managing your business and selling your products, including brand equity, reputation, intellectual capacity, and adaptability. They also offer strategies for developing intangibles and succeeding in a business world where their importance is increasing. Check price/buy book. 

 

27.  Is the American Dream Killing You: How "The Market" Rules Our Lives
by Paul Stiles. Harper Collins. 2005. 305 pages.
The free-market system, for all the good it has done, has taken a turn for the worse over the past 20 years, according to Stiles. For those who struggle to hold a job, raise a family, or find a decent standard of living, the free market has become a predatory institution. Market values have replaced cherished American morals. Leisure has been sacrificed to productivity, quality time to extra hours. It turns out that strong markets, such as those in the United States, may be as dehumanizing and spiritually detrimental as the weak markets of the former Soviet Union. According to Stiles, the promise of the American Dream has created misery for many of its greatest beneficiaries. The challenge for the future, he says, is to find better balance in our lives and in our economy. Check price/buy book.

 

28.  Lean And Meaningful: A New Culture for Corporate America
by Roger E. Herman and Joyce L. Gioia. Oak Hill Press. 1998. 388 pages.
Workers have new expectations, and employers who don't meet those expectations may be doomed to extinction. This book explores a wide range of trends and shows managers how to prepare their organizations for future success. Check price/buy book.

 

29.  Leisure and Leisure Services in the 21st Century: Toward Mid Century
by Geoffrey Godbey. Venture Publishing. 2006. 273 pages.
According to leisure studies expert Geoffrey Godbey, recreation is being reinvented across the globe. It would follow that the organizations that provide a broad array of recreation, park, sport, cultural, therapeutic, tourism, hospitality, hotel, restaurant, and other "leisure services" are also in a period of change. This book presents 66 discussion topics to prompt readers to investigate trends that could influence leisure and leisure services. Check price/buy book.

 

30.  Making it Personal: How to Profit from Personalization without Invading Privacy
by Bruce Kasanoff. Perseus Publishing. 2005. 240 pages.
Although the idea frightens privacy advocates, personalizationacquiring information about consumers to better market to themis revolutionizing business and will continue to do so for years to come, says Kasanoff. The choice is clear: Swim with the current or go against and drown. In Making it Personal, marketing consultant Kasanoff offers an insider's view into the business practices of data collection firms, spotlights pioneers who are inventing new personalization technologies, showcases the myriad possibilities for personalization, and explores the legal boundaries that protect privacy but that allow for better customer service through personalization. Check price/buy book.

 

31.  Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism: Seven New trends That Will Transform How You Work, Live and Invest
by Patricia Aburdene. Hampton Roads. 218 pages.
In Megatrends 2010, Aburdene (co-author with John Naisbitt of various bestsellers under the Megatrends title) strikes out on her own to explain the major changes taking place in the business world. She describes a growing movement within the corporate community to increased responsibilitytoward shareholders, the public, and the future. According to Aburdene, managers are already reaping rewards from the 63 million "conscious consumers" who buy from companies that reflect their values. Megatrends 2010 celebrates the demise of business as usual and celebrates the birth of conscious capitalism. Check price/buy book.

 

32.  Must-Win Battles: How to Win Them, Again and Again
by Peter Killing and Thomas Malnight, with Tracey Keys. Wharton School Publishing. 2006. 252 pages.
The authors, business strategy consultants, argue that, while setting goals and new initiatives are good for organizations, far too many organizations have too many initiatives. The result is organizations that lack focus. In Must-Win Battles, the authors attempt to show readers how to create agreement on critical challenges and how to mobilize and achieve those by combining strategic focus with emotional commitmenta process for learning to do fewer things, and doing them better. Check price/buy book.

 

33.  Navigating the Badlands: Thriving in the Decade of Radical Transformation
by Mary O'Hara-Devereaux. Jossey-Bass. 2004. 332 pages.
Business forecaster O'Hara-Devereaux shows how organizations can hone their competitive edge in the age of turbulent stock markets, worker migration, and the overhaul of traditional strategic-planning methods. This how-to for business survival and success uses illustrative stories from a wide variety of industries, geographic areas, and organizations as models for moving forward in today's unforgiving business climate. Check price/buy book.

 

34.  The New Rules of Corporate Conduct: Rewriting the Social Charter
by Ian Wilson. Quorum. 2000. 213 pages.
Corporate social responsibility can no longer be relegated to public relations, but must be an integral part of the corporate strategy, argues Ian Wilson, an international management consultant and authority on strategic management. This book provides a detailed analysis of the new rules of corporate conduct—covering legitimacy, equity, ethics, and other key issues—and outlines an agenda of workable corporate responses to these new rules. Comment: An eye-opener for those who believe that a corporation exists only to make a profit for its shareholders." —Edward Cornish, president, World Future Society. Check price/buy book.

 

35.  The Past and Future of America's Economy: Long Waves of Innovation That Power Cycles of Growth
by Robert Atkinson. Edward Elgar. 2005. 357 pages. Paperback.
Throughout American history, cycles of economic and technological change have fundamentally altered the way people work, the scope of U.S. policy, and the way we lives. Robert D. Atkinson, vice president and director of the Technology and New Economy Project at the Progressive Policy Institute, examines this process of change over the past 150 years and explores the responses of people and institutions. He then examines the New Economy's effects on workers, governance, technology, and markets. Check price/buy book.

 

36.  Peripheral Vision: Detecting Weak Signals That Will Make or Break Your Company
by George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker. Harvard Business School Press. 2006. 256 pages.
What happens when a company ignores the events unfolding at the edges of its business? These "signals on the periphery" can grow into a major problems, or they could signal lost opportunities. In this volume, Day and Schoemaker, affiliated with the Mack Center for Technological Innovation, offer steps for improving peripheral vision in business. Check price/buy book.

 

37.  Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them
by Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins. Harvard Business School Press. 2004. 317 pages.  
Many personal, professional, and global surprises can be predicted and avoided. Using lessons learned from Enron and the disasters of September 11, 2001, the authors identify some of the characteristics of surprise, explore the techniques that can help managers and business people recognize and mitigate them, and ultimately result in prosperity and success in an organization. Topics include bias, special interests, identifiable threats, and preventable actions. Check price/buy book.

 

38.  The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Advantage
by Yossi Sheffi. MIT Press. 2005. 368 pages.
The Resilient Enterprise shows companies how to reduce their vulnerabilities. Sheffi asserts that companies can assess their vulnerabilities by answering three basic questions: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood of that happening? What are the consequences if that does happen? Readers will learn how companies from Toyota to Chiquita planned for (or failed to plan for) disruptions. Check price/buy book.

 

39.  The Restoration Economy: The Greatest New Growth Frontier
by Storm Cunningham. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. 2002. 434 pages.
Restorative development will soon account for most development on the planet, says analyst Storm Cunningham. This intriguing volume explores restoring the natural and the built environments and the potential for business and government that goes hand in hand with renewal. Check price/buy book.

 

40.  Revolt in the Boardroom: The New Rules of Power in Corporate America
by Alan Murray. Collins. 2007. 247 pages.
In 2004, the leaders of 600 companies were asked to leave. That number more than doubled in 2005 and reached 1,400 companies in 2006. Murray, the assistant managing editor of the Wall Street Journal, looks at three seminal board revolts--the now-famous Hewlett-Packard drama, the ousting of Boeing's Harry Stonecipher, and the end of the reign of one of the world's most autocratic executives, Hank Greenberg at AIG--to show how the role of the CEO is rapidly changing. Check price/buy book.

 

41.  Revolutionary Wealth: How It Will Be Created and How it Will Change Our Lives
by Alvin and Heidi Toffler. Knopf. 2006. Approx. 512 pages. 
Future Shock authors Alvin and Heidi Toffler tackle everything from family life, jobs, time pressures, and the mounting complexity of everyday life to cast light on the future of wealth, visible and invisible, that will redesign our lives, companies, and the world in the years ahead. Chapters include "Capitalism's Future," "Poverty," " China's Next Surprise?" "The 'Prosumer' Economy," and "Tomorrow's Oil." Check price/buy book.

 

42.  Smart World: Breakthrough Creativity and the New Science of Ideas
by Richard Ogle. Harvard Business School Press. 2007. 303 pages.
Harnessing creativity means more than hiring quirky geniuses, argues Ogle. Rather, creativity lies in the connections between people, and harnessing it means understanding that networks give rise to creativity. In Smart World, Ogle outlines "a new science of ideas." The key resides in what he calls "idea-spaces," a set of nodes in a network of people (and their ideas) that cohere and take on a distinctive set of characteristics leading to the generation of breakthrough ideas. Ogle's theories are illuminated with stories of dramatic breakthroughs in science, business, and art. Check price/buy book.

 

43.  Social Intelligence: The New Science of Success
by Karl Albrecht. Pfeiffer. 304 pages.
Management consultant and futurist Karl Albrecht defines social intelligence (SI) as a combination of sensitivity to the needs and interests of others, sometimes called "social radar," an attitude of generosity and consideration, and a set of practical skills for interacting successfully with people in any setting. In this book, Albrecht provides a comprehensive model for describing, assessing, and developing social intelligence at a personal level. This book is filled with concepts, examples, and strategies designed to help readers navigate social situations more successfully. Check price/buy book.

 

44.  A Spiritual Audit of Corporate America: A Hard Look at Spirituality, Religion, and Values in the Workplace
by Ian I. Mitroff and Elizabeth A. Denton. Jossey-Bass. 1999. 320 pages.
Survey of spiritual beliefs and practices among managers and executives, examining strengths and weaknesses of five different models of workplace spirituality. Check price/buy book.

 

45.  Sustained Innovation: Converging Business and Technology to Achieve Enduring Performance 
by Faisal Hoque and Terry A. Kirkpatrick. BTM Press. 2007. 160 pages.
Sustained innovation requires a seamless, structured management approach that begins with board and CEO-level issues and connects all the way through technology investment and implementation. Using case studies from large companies, social enterprises, and the government sector, the authors show how enterprises can innovate to survive and even thrive in the knowledge-based global community. In search of innovation, the book takes readers from the doorsteps of American corporate giants to the home of the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, from R&D centers in Israel to India's new economy, from the enterprising government of Algeria to the inspiring operations of Grameen in remote villages of Bangladesh. Check price/buy book.

 

46.  Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games
by Edward Castronova. University of Chicago Press. 2005. 332 pages.
The world of online video games has evolved from the exclusive domain of computer geeks into a lucrative staple of the entertainment industry. Synthetic Worlds offers a comprehensive look at the big business of online gaming and explores the potential ramifications for business and culture. Check price/buy book.

 

47.  Treasure Hunt: Inside the Mind of the New Consumer
by Michael J. Silverstein. Portfolio Books. 2006. 272 pages.
Silverstein, co-author of the book Trading Up, explores how middle-income consumers have gotten better than ever at finding cheap products in some categoriesincluding basics like razorsto free up cash to buy more expensive goods in other categories–such as chocolate or apparel.  Some companies, according to Silverstein, get caught trying play to either the low end or the high end, while others, like General Motors, get trapped in the middle. In this book, Silverstein endeavors to tell them how they all take advantage of the treasure hunt consumer phenomenon. Check price/buy book.

 

48.  Turning the Future into Revenue: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know to Shape Their Futures
by Glen Hiemstra. John Wiley & Sons. 2006. 226 pages.  Read Review
Glen Hiemstra is the founder of Futurist.com and a noted expert on emerging business opportunities. This book covers a wide range of what businesses and individuals need to know to shape their futures. Key topics discussed include long-term trends to prepare for such as global warming, profiting from technology and energy trends, hedging your bets on future business, key practices of the future-oriented enterprise, tactics for forecasting the future, and shaping your career for future success. Check price/buy book.

 

49.  Visionaries: People and Ideas to Change Your Life
edited by Jay Walljasper, John Spayde, and the editors of Utne Reader. New Society. 2001. 307 pages. Paperback.
Profiles of future-minded activists around the globe, including scientists, business leaders, physicians, poets, and other catalysts for change. Check price/buy book.

 

50.  What's Next? Exploring the New Terrain for Business
by Eamonn Kelly, Peter Leyden, and members of Global Business Network. Perseus Publishing. 2002. 368 pages.
An inspiring and thought-provoking guide to ideas, concepts, and forces influencing business in the next decade—an era of increasing uncertainty and opportunity. Explores a range of fields through interviews with many of the Global Business Network's key thinkers, offering multiple perspectives on the future that go beyond prescriptions and predictions to possibilities. Check price/buy book.

 

51.  What We Learned in the Rainforest: Business Lessons from Nature
by Tachi Kiuchi and Bill Shireman. Berrett-Koehler. 2002. 256 pages.
The authors, a CEO of a major corporation and an environmentalist, use real-life examples to illustrate a powerful business model for driving innovation, increasing profit, spurring growth, and ensuring sustainability based on nature. Check price/buy book.

 

52.  Where the Action Is: Today and Tomorrow 
by McKinley Conway. Conway Data. 2007. 336 pages. Paperback. 
The world business community today consists of truly global firms, somewhat global firms, and non-global firms. In the first group there are several thousand corporations, mostly large ones, that have been globalized for some time. The tens of thousands of mid-size and small firms in the second group are already planning foreign ventures. For every one of these globally active groups there are probably 10 good firms interested in operating globally that have not yet begun to do so, according to development expert Conway. The purpose of this book is to help medium-sized companies plan their foray into the expanding international market. Check price/buy book.

 

53.  A Whole New Mind: Moving From the Information Age to the Conceptual Age
by Daniel H. Pink. Riverhead Books. 2005. 260 pages. 
Former White House speechwriter Pink offers a look at the changing faceand brainof success in the twenty-first century. "A highly original, well-researched, and thoughtful effort to offer practical help for people caught in the career-wrecking upheavals in today's workplace," writes World Future Society founder, Edward Cornish. Check price/buy book.

 

54.  Why Some Companies Emerge Stronger and Better from a Crisis: 7 Essential Lessons for Surviving Disaster
by Ian Mitroff. AMACOM. 2005. 256 pages.
Crisis management expert Mitroff presents seven competencies that companies must develop in order to deal with crises. He outlines how to foster emotional resiliency, creative problem solving, and crucial political and socials skills, and provides a blueprint for integrating these goals into daily practice. Subjects include harnessing spirituality, how to be a responsible troublemaker, and right thinking, integration, and technical skills. Check price/buy book.

 

55.  Wireless Horizon: Strategy and Competition in the Worldwide Mobile Marketplace
by Dan Steinbock. AMACOM. 2003. 494 pages.
Market researcher Steinbock plumbs the depths of the wireless world of mobile communications, chronicling its rise from the pre-cellular era to third-generation innovations in Japan’s service industries. National monopolies, market liberalization, geographic competition, and digital convergence are among the topics he examines. He also takes a close look at leading equipment manufacturers Nokia, Qualcomm, Ericsson, and Motorola, plus other enablers and service providers such as Microsoft and Intel. Check price/buy book.

 

חקר העתיד ומינהל עסקים
קורס למינהל עסקים באוני' בר אילן

מסמכים שונים העוסקים בחקר העתיד