Futures consulting approaches

Futures consulting approaches

4 approaches to study and predict the future

In the process of its development as an academic discipline, Futures Studies passed through four basic stages, which developed in turn to four approaches dedicated to helping scholars study the future. Each approach had its advantage and weaknesses. 

The first approach, the classical school, aimed at identifying the most probable trends. 

The second, the scenarios school, aimed at identifying some possible trends. 

The third, the wild cards school, aimed at identifying the implausible trends, 

and the fourth, the futures designer school, aimed at developing preferable futures. 

Following is a synopsis of the philosophical foundation of each approach. It is important to keep in mind the principles of these approaches while attempting to use Futures Thinking in decision making processes.

Professor Passig will assist in determining the best approach and the relevant methodology to address your needs:

1

Probable Futures

The first approach, also known as the classical approach, focuses on the prediction of trends, and is based on the as­sumption that there is logic to evolution. 

2

Possible Futures

The second approach, the scenarios approach, takes as its point of departure the assumption that, even with the understan­ding of evolution available to us today, it is still beyond the realm of the possible to understand sufficiently how systems develop, and to draft predictions.

3

Wild Futures

The third approach, in contrast, assumes that if one is to focus on scenarios which logically speaking are unlikely to develop, and then on the basis of those scenarios, prepare response procedures in case they might really happen, s/he will be preparing themselves better for any complex and extreme possibility that might occur.
4

Preferable Futures

The fourth approach, which aims at inventing the future, assumes that it is the task of the futurists not to make predic­tions whilst systems are in soaring disequilibrium, but to help the members of any social, political, or business entity to mold for themselves future images or a shared vision of the future stemming from their collective wisdom.
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Globes
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Bank Hapoalim
Bar Ilan University
Ministry of Science and Technology
The Israeli Parliament
Apple
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Everest
Tehila Maimon
Dir. The Academic Preparatory Program, Bar Ilan U.
His presentation was an eye opener to a new and covert topic on the futurized mind. The lecture provided the audience with opportunity to assess reality from a different perspective and the future is revealed with a different meaning. You get a vast knowledge about the anatomy of the mind, psychology and neurology with a human touch that makes his presentation of an hour and a half a pure pleasure experience.
Tehila Maimon
CEO (zmaneshkol.co.il)
Prof. Passig is a very engaging speaker. It's quite an experience to see how he delivers his sophisticate topics in a simple manner to a variety of audiences. He's praised throughout t excellent feedbacks he receives. The variety of topics he delivers attracts returning attendees that enjoy very much his knowledge and expertise.
Ofer Birav
Danny Shavit
Founder and CEO the leading Israeli speakers' agency www.martzim.co.il
20 years of mutual work. One speaker. Hundreds of lectures. Thousands of thrilled attendees forming a variety of audiences. Prof. Passig is one of the most exciting, engaging, and innovative presenter in Israel.
Danny Shavit
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