Probable Futures

Probable Futures

The first approach, also known as the classical approach, focuses on the prediction of trends, and is based on the as­sumption that there is logic to evolution. 

The futurists of this approach try to find patterns of logic, which express themselves in evolutionary processes, and to translate them to valid, reliable models.

The reliability of the models, according to a number of studies conducted during the last decade, runs on the average of 0.70 (Cornish, 1997).

Futurists identified with this approach use these models to draft forecasts in order to help organiza­tions adapt themselves to newly developing trends.

This approach was dominant among senior decision makers in the 1940s and 1950s, primarily in the United States.

Today, futures’ research tends to focus on five ranges of future time. Just as there are institutions, organizations, institutes, and experts who are involved with research into different aspects and approaches of the future, it follows that they specialize in different ranges of time.

The following are the five ranges of future time discussed in the literature (Joseph, 1974): The immediate range—up to five years, the short range—five to ten years, the median range—ten to thirty years, the long range—thirty to fifty years and the very long range—fifty to one hundred years. 

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Danny Shavit
Founder and CEO the leading Israeli speakers' agency www.martzim.co.il
20 years of mutual work. One speaker. Hundreds of lectures. Thousands of thrilled attendees forming a variety of audiences. Prof. Passig is one of the most exciting, engaging, and innovative presenter in Israel.
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Tehila Maimon
Dir. The Academic Preparatory Program, Bar Ilan U.
His presentation was an eye opener to a new and covert topic on the futurized mind. The lecture provided the audience with opportunity to assess reality from a different perspective and the future is revealed with a different meaning. You get a vast knowledge about the anatomy of the mind, psychology and neurology with a human touch that makes his presentation of an hour and a half a pure pleasure experience.
Tehila Maimon
CEO (zmaneshkol.co.il)
Prof. Passig is a very engaging speaker. It's quite an experience to see how he delivers his sophisticate topics in a simple manner to a variety of audiences. He's praised throughout t excellent feedbacks he receives. The variety of topics he delivers attracts returning attendees that enjoy very much his knowledge and expertise.
Ofer Birav