A future perspective on Abraham accords

Abraham Accords Foreign Ministers in Israel

March 27, 2022

Current Discourse

On the one hand, there are those today that put great importance on the Abraham Accords signed with the Gulf states and Morocco, arguing that they, de facto, broke the paradigm that assumed that peace with the Arab world would always go through an agreement with the Palestinians. For them, the Abraham Accords illustrate that the agreement with the Palestinians can be circumvented and still have good and beneficial regional neighborly relations. Not only that, but they may promote a proper agreement with the Palestinians, as it will make it clear to their leaders that Arab states can no longer be held hostage to their issue, and they will be persuaded to move to a final solution before losing the support of other Arab and Islamic states.

On the other hand, there are those who almost completely dismiss the importance of these accords, sometimes even with arrogant contempt on the grounds that it is not a big deal to sign agreements with "countries that have never fought against Israel."

In fact, these two approaches cast the spotlight on the problems of the region - especially on the resolution of the geographical conflict between the Jewish state and the surrounding Arab states. True, there are also those who say that.the two approaches focus on an important historical event that promotes an agreement between Judaism and Islam

Future Discourse

If the current view of the accords is regional, then the view from the future may be multilateral in which the current arguments may dwarf to the point that they are insignificant anecdotes on the side of a broader and more significant historical process. It is therefore important to try to understand the agreement from a further perspective if only to give the regional dimension a more modest weight and thus maximize its benefits, but mainly to place it in a historical context of the significant processes the human species is likely to experience during the 21st century. If we succeed in elevating their broader historical context, we may be able to conduct ourselves better in the present.

If so, in order to clarify the historical perspective of the Abraham Accords we need to anticipate and take a quick look at human history from the bird’s eye of 5000 years.

 

Much has been written about the geographical pivot of human civilization.[1] 

If the theory can be summed up, it can be said that this is the area around the geographical heart where most of the resources of human civilization are to this day. The area around the heart has been home for most of the people who have lived and still live on earth and the geography on which they trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The two regions together - the heart and the tiara-like area, are sometimes referred to as the "world island". This island concentrates most of the main and important resources for the existence of a developed civilization (about 60% of world GDP), and energetic needs (about 60% of oil reserves and about 80% of proven gas reserves) that can ensure continued prosperity.

The group of people who were able to understand and take advantage of this geographical feature for many years was none other than China, which, in the course of about 1600 years (between 120 BC and 1450 AD), was able to develop the road network in the world island to connect its inhabitants and provide them with a platform to share resources and move people. This road network was called the Silk Road. For many years it was a factor that promoted human civilization through the ongoing movement of resources and ideas among the inhabitants of the "island”.

Islamic Caliphate

But since the death of Muhammad (632 AD) Islam, which was founded on the basis of supremacy and religious exclusivity, has begun wars of conquest to unite the Middle East along with North Africa and Europe into a single Muslim unit.

In order to succeed in their brutal conquest campaigns, they cut off the Silk Road that passed from the east towards Europe, thus blocking the passage of goods, resources and technologies that could be of help to the countries they sought to conquer and convert.

At the height of the unification period, Islam actually ruled most of the territory of the geographical pivot, embracing Europe all around and cutting it off from the Silk Road and thus becoming a power that added to the darkness that characterized Europe in the Middle Ages.

At the height of the Islamic Caliphate period, in the 15th century, the Ottoman Empire numbered about 740 million inhabitants - the third largest group of people in those days. It controlled an area of ​​about 14 million square kilometers - the second largest geographical block in those days. It had a GNP of $ 5.5 trillion (in modern terms) - the third-largest block of countries in those days. And its decision-makers resided in Cairo (a mega-city in terms of those days) numbering about 16 million men and women, which was the 12th largest city in the Middle Ages. 

Discovery of America

When Spain, representing European countries in their struggle against the Islamic Caliphate, became impoverished from the conduct of religious wars between Catholics and Protestants in Europe and was persuaded after much effort by an adventurer and sailor named Columbus in 1492, that there was a way to bypass the ME and reach India, the Caliphate began to lose its geopolitical advantages.

The discovery of the American continent is known to have brought new treasures and resources to Spain, which has become rich from brutal conquests in South America. But the most important thing that has happened in history, of course from a centuries-old perspective, is that slowly the geographical advantage of the Islamic Caliphate has lost its value and, not only that, but a blast in America has led to the discovery of a new source for resources that did not rely on the "world island”. 

European Colonialism

 This historical process reached its peak after about 500 years, at the beginning of the 21st century, when, on the one hand, most of the countries that made up the Islamic suits, did not understand the development vector in the history of civilizations, and became failed nations that many sought to escape.

 

On the other hand, during the second half of the 20th century, the European empires (including the USSR) also ended a period of glory during two world wars, and the American power became the undisputed world leader, mainly because of its ability to control the sea crossings of all continents.

 

 

But at the beginning of the 21st century, or rather in 2013, a Chinese leader named Xi Jinping arose to seek to turn the tide of the last 500 years in favor of China and lead the world again by a new Silk Road that would inherit not only Asia, the Middle East, and Europe but will also bypass Africa and the North Pole during the summer. This worldwide venture is called the "Belt and Road Initiative." It is estimated to cost $1 trillion in 2020 estimates. Its goal is to place a network of ports, railways, oil and gas pipelines that will cross Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America.

  

The U.S. which fell asleep on guard during the initial stages of the project's implementation, during the second decade of the 21st century, is waking up to fight back a geo-strategic war to halt the Chinese move.

I am not part of the closed circles of American strategists to say that the following have been said somewhere. I rely solely on reading between the lines of maps and parts of sayings that are occasionally published by various senior government officials. In fact, from the point of view of "future history,” it is very possible that this is how they will study contemporary history and thus give a different meaning to the Abraham Accords. Whether the following is true or not, this way of thinking can add an important tier to understanding processes that may contribute to maximizing opportunities or bypassing the bumps that agreements present in the present. 

Braking Moves

 In any confrontation, the first thing a good commander must do is include in his strategy moves that will stop the enemy's movements. In the escalating conflict between the United States (including many countries in the West) and China (including many countries in Asia and Africa), the Americans are arranging their cards and those of their friendly countries so that they can be partners first and foremost against China's expansion vector and its containment efforts. They will try to cut the new road they seek to establish.

This is not the place to list the many moves the Americans are leading. It is enough if we look at the Abraham Accords and try to understand them from the point of view of the American strategists as part of their containment efforts. It can be said that Americans do not care if the containment moves have religious or cultural significance. It is good that the local interests are in sync with the interest and the broad course. It's good that it's resolving a regional conflict in the process. But what really matters, and for that they will be willing to invest a lot of effort and money, is that the accords will fulfill the task whose purpose is to block the new Silk Road. 

It is enough to look at the maps to identify the containment moves that the Americans are establishing. First and foremost, they are arranging the countries in Southeast Asia so that they can choke, if need be, in the future, the new Silk Road at the important transit point of goods passing through the main access roads in the heart of the sea.

 

The second containment move is to close the crossings that the Chinese seek to build through the Middle East. Although they have already built and driven a stake in many ports and infrastructure projects in Arab countries and Israel, from the American point of view, most countries in the Middle East need to be united in order to create another belt brake around the transport lines coming from the Far East to the Middle East towards Europe.

To this end, they were willing to use a huge assistance package in the form of beneficial trade agreements and very advanced weaponry in order for them to get along with each other and join forces for strategic purposes. These countries are the Gulf states, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt. Not all moves have been completed and/or published. But many expect more moves that are secretly brewing to be exposed as needed. In this respect, the first published Abraham Accords are part of a more comprehensive strategy that is well integrated with regional interests and along the way, they also resolve a conflict that is time to go down in the history books because it only brings more roomy damage to the great power of the period. 

 

 

Braking force in West Africa

It now remains to understand the last slot in the American containment moves derived from the Abraham Accords – the accord between Israel and Morocco. Over the past decade, the Chinese have been able to advance relatively quickly with their plan for a new Silk Road, especially around African countries, with the intent of winging Europe through Africa and establishing channels of trade and influence towards it.

If I were an American strategist, I would be looking for a way to double the power by forming alliances between peoples that could create another choke belt of the new road that would have a hard time stretching its strings towards Europe from the South. In this respect, there is no better way than Morocco to sit at the doorstep of Southwestern Europe. But Morocco alone will not be able to meet the task and it needs a country with the technological capabilities and human resources to produce a braking force worthy of the arms of the new Silk Road that stretches around Africa coming to Europe. And there is no better country for this task than Israel.

   

 

As mentioned, the Americans are making many, broader moves, but this is not the place to mention them. They include not only containment moves but also attacks and undermining moves on which the moves of China and its metastases are built. Among them is the establishment of the axis of the four countries that embrace China - USA, Japan, India, and Australia (Quad Nations - QN), the establishment of the cyber coalition whose members are blocs of countries - USA, Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Europe (Five Eyes Security Coalition), the Coalition of Technological Powers - which includes blocs of leading countries (QN, G10, G7, SK, EU) and more.

And the struggle that will shape at least the first half of the 21st century in the history of humanity has only begun to surface.

And this is another broad perspective to look at and understand the Abraham Accords, its broad goals, and the long-term context that drives it.